The Obama administration has been taking a lot of criticism lately due to its recent call for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down “now.” The chief concern of these critics is that, should Mubarak be removed from power, a vacuum will emerge in which radical elements — notably the Muslim Brotherhood — might take control of Egypt, replacing a long-time friend with a regime that might be at odds with the United States and Israel. Because of this, these critics instead advocate for Mubarak to remain at the helm of Egypt’s “republic” until this fall. These suggestions endorse a short-sighted and ill-advised policy that will halt the incredible momentum of Egypt’s opposition and damage American interests in the Middle East.
Though Mubarak has indeed been a long-time ally of the US, our relationship has been anything but ideal. Mubarak’s presidency, now in its thirtieth year, began in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Indeed, the romance between the United States and Mubarak began with Sadat’s decision, in 1979, to make peace with Israel following the Camp David Accords. This was a huge victory for both the United States and Israel, and Egypt was awarded in kind: regaining control of the Sinai peninsula from the Israelis and receiving billions of dollars in economic and military aid from the United States. To this day, Egypt receives more foreign aid from the United States than any other country except Israel.
Though peace between Egypt and Israel certainly served the interests of the United States, even then, US officials made it clear that Egypt would have to change. Sadat, and later Mubarak, retained what was essentially a dictatorial regime. In response to this, much of the aid sent to in Egypt was geared towards programs that would decrease government control, including privatization of businesses, expanded funding and openness in basic and higher education, and decentralization of authority through the expansion of local structures, both governmental and non-governmental. Yet, after 30 years and some $50 billion in cumulative aid, Egypt under Mubarak has made little progress in any of these areas. These figures make it painfully clear that, as New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof has written, “Mr. Mubarak is not the remedy for the instability in Egypt; he is the cause.”
But what of the alternatives? As mentioned, many in the United States and elsewhere fear the possibility of an Egypt run by radical Islamists. They cite the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist opposition movement found in many Arab nations and currently banned in Egypt, as the most likely group to take power should Mubarak step down. The Brotherhood itself is a fairly contentious topic within policy circles; some claim it is extremely radical, others describe it as fairly moderate. These disparate characterizations of the Brotherhood show that it is anything but a monolith. The Muslim Brotherhood is frayed by clashing personalities and varying interpretations of Islamic governance. The Muslim Brotherhood will certainly play a role in a transitional Egypt, but that role will be a muted one, rather than one of uncontested power and Egyptian obeisance.
As for the final concern, that Egypt does not yet have the institutions or structure necessary to begin a democracy immediately, I concur. President Mubarak and his rigid bureaucracy have failed to develop a meaningful civil society in Egypt. This is precisely why he must step down. Egypt will need to install a temporary transitional government to prepare for free and fair elections, but Mubarak is not the person to lead Egypt through this stage. He has failed his people for 30 years, and they no longer fear him. Mass demonstrations will continue until Mubarak steps down and a transitional strategy is clearly defined to the Egyptian people.
The Obama administration should step away from the Mubarak-centered policy of the past and instead adopt one that keeps the interests of the Egyptian people at heart. Obama must remain firm in his call for Mubarak to step aside and be ready to offer a hand of friendship to the fledgling democracy that will emerge. The loss of a 30-year ally in Mubarak will initially be difficult for the United States to accept, but his downfall is inevitable. In the long run a democratic Egypt will serve the best interests of the American, and Egyptian, people.
