Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated that the United States would pursue “crippling” sanctions against Iran if diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program fails. The only crippling that will occur should the United States pursue these sanctions is the crippling of the Iranian people and the crippling of the United States’ standing among them. Despite the hype surrounding the idea of sanctions, the civic strategy of solidarity with the Iranian people is the only strategy which will result in positive concessions from the Islamic Republic.
Since the hostage crisis of 1979 the United States has imposed multiple sanctions against Iran. The goal of these sanctions was to create dire economic conditions to pressure Iran’s fundamentalist leaders. But economic pressures do not always result in political changes. The ultimate goal of the sanctions- undermining support for Iran’s theocratic regime- has failed. In fact, the sanctions backfired and gave Iran’s ayatollahs more ammunition to justify their monopoly on Iranian politics and power. They also allowed the Iranian regime to fuel the Islamic Republic’s greatest myth- the myth that depicts the United States as the “Great Satan” and the American people as enemies of Islam.
Despite these past failings, many of our government officials are convinced that sanctions will prevail this time around. During a hearing of the Senate committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Senator Charles Schumer described economic sanctions as “the preferred method of choking Iran’s nukes.” This myth of sanctions as a demoralizing agent needs to be debunked. Sanctions will choke ordinary people in Iran, not nuclear ambitions.
Regardless, the United States is in the process of developing multilateral sanctions against Iran. Two powerful allies, the United Kingdom and France, have voiced their support for the strategy if Tehran does not make acceptable concessions on its nuclear program. Yet two equally powerful countries, Russia and China, are much less enthusiastic. Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently stated that sanctions “would not be creating favorable conditions” for resolving the nuclear issue. Similarly Jiang Yu, a Chinese foreign policy spokesperson, has voiced Chinese opposition as well: “We believe that sanctions and exerting pressure are not the way to solve problems and are not conducive to the current diplomatic efforts on the Iran issue.” With both China and Russia holding veto power in the United Nations Security Council, it seems unlikely that sanctions will work. But suppose we do come to an agreement and Russia and China back the sanctions fully. Wouldn’t that make the plan successful?
Successful sanctions, though uncommon, are not outside the realm of possibility. But the result that is more likely is a continuation of failures that could potentially escalate into something nobody desires: a war with Iran. As with the “Oil for Food” sanctions against Iraq a decade ago, sanctions against Iran will reward smugglers, enrich those in power, and stifle civil society. With the Revolutionary Guard already in control of the majority of the Iranian economy, small businesses will be undercut and the average Iranian will suffer. With these conditions in place, Iran’s hard-liners will frame the sanctions as “proof” that Americans are using the hardship of the Iranian people for the furtherance of their own interests. Uncontested control over Iran means Ahmadinejad will remain the Middle East’s provocateur and could feasibly trigger a war with the United States or Israel. It is precisely this endgame that we should try to avoid.
Instead of playing its regular tough guy role, the United States should pursue a different strategy. America shouldn’t feel the need to de-legitimize Ahmadinejad even further- he can take care of that himself. America should instead use a power that has always been its major advantage over dictatorial regimes everywhere. This isn’t our power to kill or cause harm- this is our power to offer a brighter future to the Iranian people. President Obama has already extended the hand of friendship to Iran and promised that changes in our relationship will be “grounded in mutual respect” –not threats. Promoting human rights in Iran isn’t just doing what is best for the Iranian people; it is also the best security strategy the United States can invest in.
I really enjoyed the insight! I have to agree with you 100% Iran has been living with sanctions for 30 years and has not stopped the regime. I think it is time for a new strategy!
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